March 3 – Delhi’s first statement at the UN Security Council (UNSC) did not name any country directly, but said it regretted that calls from the international community to give diplomacy a chance had not been heeded. and the dialogue.
However, he stopped short of criticizing Russia. And before the United Nations Security Council voted on a draft UN resolution condemning the invasion, Delhi faced calls from Russia, the United States and Ukraine to “do the right thing.”
Ukraine and Russia even made public calls for Delhi to take a clear position. India chose to abstain from the vote, but a careful reading of its statement suggests it went a step further and indirectly called on Moscow to respect international law.
India spoke about the importance of “the UN Charter, international law and respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states,” adding that “all member states must honor these principles to find a constructive way forward.” “.
Delhi continued with its strategy as it chose to abstain when the UN General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to demand an immediate end to the invasion of Ukraine.
The third abstention was followed by calls from senior officials in Washington for India to “take a clear position.”
India’s strategy has raised questions, particularly in the West, about whether the world’s largest democracy should have taken a clearer position.
no good options
Former Indian diplomat JN Misra says that India “has bad and worse options to choose from.”
“One cannot lean both ways at the same time. India has not named any country, which shows that it will not go against Moscow. India had to be subtle in choosing sides and it has,” he added.
There are several reasons for India’s quest to find a diplomatic footing over Ukraine.
Most important are India’s time-tested diplomatic and defense ties with Moscow.
Russia remains India’s largest arms supplier even though its share has dropped from 70% to 49% due to India’s decision to diversify its portfolio and boost domestic defense manufacturing.
In addition, Russia is supplying equipment like the S-400 missile defense system that gives India a crucial strategic deterrent against China and Pakistan, which is why it went ahead with the order despite threats of US sanctions. imminent.
Defense Supplies Matter
Furthermore, it is hard for Delhi to ignore decades of history of diplomatic cooperation with Russia on various issues. Moscow has vetoed United Nations Security Council resolutions on disputed Kashmir in the past to help India keep it a bilateral issue.
In this context, India seems to be following its famous strategy of non-alignment and promoting dialogue to solve problems.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Wilson Center think tank, says India’s position is not surprising, as it is consistent with its previous strategy.
He adds that Delhi “does not seem comfortable with what is happening in Ukraine, but it is not likely to change its position.”
“It just can’t afford to do it right now because of its defense and geopolitical needs,” he says. Although he adds that Delhi has chosen some strong words in the United Nations Security Council to show that it is not comfortable with the situation in Ukraine.
India also has the difficult task of trying to evacuate 20,000 citizens, mostly students, from Ukraine.
Former Indian diplomat Anil Triguniyat, who served in Moscow and also in Libya, where he oversaw the evacuation of Indian citizens when the conflict broke out in 2011, says security guarantees from all parties to a conflict are needed to carry out an operation successful evacuation.
“India cannot take sides at the risk of jeopardizing the security of its citizens. Plus, you’re looking at a holistic picture that involves keeping channels open with everyone,” she adds.
India has been able to get help from both Ukraine and Russia to evacuate its citizens, especially from the hard-hit city of Kharkiv. It still has hundreds of citizens, mostly students, trapped in the Ukraine and will continue to seek cooperation from all sides.
In that sense, India is in a unique position as it is one of the few countries that has good relations with both Washington and Moscow.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar held talks with officials in Washington.
Modi has also held talks with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. Triguniyat says India has done well to keep diplomatic channels open with both sides.
“India has not criticized Russia directly, but it is not that India has turned a blind eye to the suffering of the Ukrainians. It has taken a balanced approach. It spoke strongly about territorial integrity in the United Nations Security Council and clearly had intended to highlight the plight of Ukraine,” he added.
But if Washington and its European allies continue to impose harsh sanctions on Russia, India may find it difficult to continue doing business with Moscow.
The US seems to understand India’s position at the moment, but there is no guarantee that it will continue to do so.
When US President Joe Biden was recently asked about India’s position, he did not give a definitive answer. “We are going to have consultations with India [over Ukraine]. We have not fully resolved that,” she said.
The issue of sanctions for the purchase of the S-400 still looms. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (Caatsa) was introduced in 2017 to target Russia, Iran, and North Korea with economic and political sanctions. It also prohibits any country from signing defense agreements with these nations.
Washington had not promised any waivers even before Russia invaded Ukraine, and experts believe the issue could become a bargaining chip between India and the US.
Meanwhile, Moscow could use its own pressure points, including strengthening ties with India’s arch-rival Pakistan, if it sees a change in Delhi’s strategy.
Russia has come to terms with India’s growing ties to the United States over the past two decades, but Ukraine is a red line it would not want Delhi to cross.
Kugelman says such tipping points will only come if the conflict in Ukraine drags on and ends up creating a bipolar world.
“Let’s hope it doesn’t happen. But if it does, India’s foreign policy will be severely tested,” he says.
