CPN (United Socialist) Chairman Madhav Kumar Nepal entered the presidential race following the proposal of his bête noire CPN-UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli to that effect in order to prevent the Nepalese Congress from (NC) get the job.
Oli made the offer to Nepal during his meeting at the residence of a united socialist leader in Maharajgunj on Sunday. Nepal met Prime Minister (PM) Pushpa Kamal Dahal in Baluwatar on Monday and requested the latter’s support to become president, noting that UML will also support him. Dahal, in response, said that the parties must move forward to forge a consensus.
The unified socialist leaders also met NC Chairman Sher Bahadur Deuba and urged him to help make Nepal president. “I have given words to Ram Chandra Paudel and I will make him president,” a unified socialist leader quoted Deuba as saying.
The unified socialist leader claimed that Oli himself is taking the initiative to make Nepal president in recent days. There seem to be three possibilities for Nepal in the current volatile and complex political scenario.
The first becomes president for five years, the second prime minister for a short time, and the third for nothing.
Talking about the first possibility that he can easily become president with the support of NC and Maoist Center even if UML doesn’t support him as all three parties together can secure victory in presidential election.
The weighted vote total for the upcoming presidential election is 52,707, including 26,307 for federal legislators and 26,400 for provincial legislators. The candidate who receives 26,354 weighted votes is elected president.
NC has the highest proportion of votes weighted with 16,221, followed by UML with 15,233, Maoist Center 7,649, CPN (Unified Socialist) 2,574, RPP 2,450, Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) 2,145, RSP 1,501, Janamat Party 1,242, Loktantrik Party Samajwadi (LSP)) 971, and Nagarik Unmukti Party 813.
NC, the Maoist Center and the United Socialist together can easily cross the magic figure of 26,354.
But that seems unlikely as Deuba, who has been criticized in the big party for failing to keep the previous coalition intact, seems intent on bringing the party chairmanship to save his reputation within the party.
“There is no chance that we will endorse others for president. NC cannot be denied prime minister, president and speaker after becoming the biggest party,” an NC leader told Setopati. “Why should we engage in power plays if the second largest party had a speaker, a third prime minister, and the seventh president?”
NC would prefer to remain in opposition if all the important posts went to other parties. “We can do better by staying in the opposition instead of being accused of jockeying for power and then getting no job. That would even result in political gains in the days to come.”
NC leaders also feel strongly that those who have already become executive PMs should not become presidents. The NC leader also ruled out Deuba becoming president. “They are all rumors. A person who has already become the executive prime minister and now becomes the president would not even benefit the president’s institute. Politics will also get even more entangled.”
The leader claimed that Nepal would finally recognize the spirit of the current balance of power even though it now seems euphoric about the presidential aspirations. “It’s one thing for him to run for president if Unified Socialist were to merge with UML. This aspiration has no foundation or meaning without fusion. Nepal gets it.”
Another chance for Nepal to become president without NC support is with the help of UML, Maoist Center and one or more other parties. The three parties together can gather 25,456 votes.
But it is not known if Dahal, who has already reached an agreement with NC to cede the position of president to the big party, would be ready for that considering his discomfort with Oli. “We want to advance together with NC for president as far as possible,” confided a Maoist leader. “There have been many disputes and a lack of trust with the UML in such a short period of forging the current ruling coalition. It is not possible now to elect president of this coalition forgetting all that”.
It is mathematically possible for Nepal to become president without the support of both the NC and the Maoist Center, in principle, with the support of most other parties if it decided to merge with UML immediately. But that would still be difficult as bringing in RSP, LSP, Nagarik Unmukti Party, who are all out of government, seems almost impossible in the current situation.
Nepal, therefore, must seek the support of the Maoist Center to go with that of the NC or UML to become president.
The Maoist Center, which wants to compete with UML by forming a socialist center after unification with Unified Socialist, does not want Unified Socialist to be comfortable with UML. NC also does not want Unified Socialist to unify with UML as its chances of becoming the largest party become difficult if the two parties unify.
NC and Maoist Center together can offer the post of prime minister for a short time to appease Nepal in the current situation. Nepal has already said that his party should have some role in the sharing of power and it would be unfair for others to expect the party to sacrifice its aspirations for the good of others.
Nepal itself had proposed that he serve as prime minister for one year, even as Deuba and Dahal failed to agree on who should become prime minister as part of the deal to take turns as prime minister immediately after the election.
A unified socialist leader told Setopati that Nepal would agree if NC and the Maoist Center offered to make him prime minister for one year, even now. Making Nepal PM for a short term seems a better bipartisan option than making him president for five years.
But NC and the Maoist Center, themselves, have yet to agree on the split of the five-year term. NC seems willing to accept Dahal as prime minister for three years. But Dahal is aiming to become prime minister for four years. Dahal’s term would have to be less than three years if Nepal also became prime minister.
It is not yet known if Dahal would be ready to make that sacrifice.
NC and the Maoist Center also have another option of forging a coalition that excludes the Socialist Unity if they decide not to make Nepal president or prime minister. They can secure a majority for both the president and the government with the support of the RSP, JSP, LSP and Nagarik Unmukti party, who are currently out of government, and the Janamat party, who are unhappy despite being in government . They can do it even without the support of one or even two of those parties.
Nepal would get nothing in that scenario and he knows that possibility. He and his party may be left out of the next ruling coalition. Oli may not want to merge Unified Socialist with UML in that scenario.
Dahal has not been able to include the Unified Socialist in the current government due to Oli’s opposition. Oli had even rebuked JSP Chairman Upendra Yadav for holding a unification dialogue with Unified Socialist and pointed out that JSP had not been included in the government due to the party’s proximity to Unified Socialist.
Oli, therefore, can take revenge on Nepal for splitting UML once he moves away from NC and the Maoist Center after the expediency of the presidential election is over. Nepal may even have a hard time keeping its 10 House of Representatives (HoR) in the party if it is out of government.
