What Folarin Balogun’s breakout means for his international future

For 13 years, Arsenal’s Folarin Balogun was the public eye. Born in New York City, the striker’s family moved to England when he was two years old, eventually joining the Gunners’ academy at the age of 8. For more than a decade, he developed while studying Arsenal forwards such as Robin van Persie, Olivier Giroud and Pierre-Emerick. – Emerick Aubameyang.

This season has been his breakthrough, scoring 10 goals while on loan to French Ligue 1 side Reims through the first half of the season. That’s enough to be the club’s top scorer and open up more discussion about where his international future might lie, as Balogun is eligible to represent England, the United States and Nigeria.

And while Arsenal have yet to recall him as a replacement for the injured Gabriel Jesus, his ferocious form has opened up a lucrative potential transfer market for teams in need of a goalscorer.

What made Balogun so successful in France, and how can he fit into the U.S. national team’s program with a desperate need for a striker (should he choose the U.S.)? Let’s dive in.

Player profile

By the end of the 2019–20 season, the then-19-year-old Balogun had yet to register a single senior club appearance for Arsenal, although he had represented both England and the United States in their youth national teams, notably at the 2018 UEFA European Under-17 Championship respectively and Václav Ježek in the Youth (U-18) tournament.

The 2020–21 campaign provided his career with a breakthrough of sorts: Balogun opened his Arsenal scoring account during the Europa League group stage before securing a winter loan to Middlesbrough for more regular game action. Playing under Chris Wilder at Boro, Balgun scored three goals and added three assists in 18 Championship games.

Upon his return, Arsenal thought a year with Stade de Reims could accelerate his development curve in Ligue 1 for William Saliba at the other end of the pitch.

it turns out, It has been a dream move For all parties. speaking with athletic Last month, Balogun said that one-time Arsenal team-mates Alexandre Lacazette and Nicolas Pepe had each suggested trying their hand at the French first division for a more consistent involvement in the physical league.

“(Pepe) said to stay positive, keep working hard and then he said to think about the loan to the French league, ‘I’m sure you will do well in this league if you apply yourself’,” Balogun said. December, “He challenged me to score 10 goals in the league and said, ‘If you do that, you’ve made progress.’

USMNT-eligible and Arsenal loanee Folarin Balgun scored an absolute banger for Reims today. 😤

🎥: @beINSPORTSUSA

pic.twitter.com/dfJj45BSWz

— CBS Sports Golazo ⚽️ (@CBSSportsGolazo) December 29, 2022

As it turns out, Pepe’s “challenge” hardly seemed like a vertical one. The striker scored his 10th goal of the Ligue 1 campaign with a brace against Rennes in Reims’ return from the World Cup. He did so despite managing just 19 touches, his fewest starts in the league since late August. He missed the team’s next game on January 2 Reported hamstring problemReims ended 1-1 in an away day at Lille.

So, what has changed?

In all likelihood, Balogun may not have been set up for success in his previous loan. Being asked to lead the line for a team in a promotion battle is no small assignment for a player’s first extended senior engagement. In an established Ligue 1 side, Balgun has been able to express himself even more.

* With Middlesbrough (EFL Championship).
** With Reims (Ligue 1)
Data via Wyscout

While shots were hard to come by for Boro, he was consistent in putting them on frame. He also finished his chances at a relatively low rate, albeit with a very low serve. It all pales in comparison to what he managed through the first half of the Ligue 1 campaign. Despite his 3-for-3 record from the penalty spot, Balgun managed 0.48 non-penalty expected goals per 90 when factoring in overtime.

He is also given more license to play a progressive role, making more touches in the box per two games, being caught offside at a similar clip – showing greater license to break behind the line, which is not a bad thing – and adding almost a full extra progressive run per game. Those aren’t the only significant improvements in his championship output. It’s the kind of profile that transforms a striker from a rank-and-file loan army mainstay to an iconic young striker.

The following table contains Balogun’s percentage points compared to positional peers in the men’s “Big 5” leagues, Champions League and Europa League over the last 365 days. Balogun has played 1160 qualified minutes in that time frame.

Data via fbref.com

If there is an area for improvement, it would be in his aerial game. Listed at 5-foot-10 (1,55 meters), Balogun is not adept at floating balls on the end of headers with rims from set pieces or runs of play. Smarterscout data rates players from zero to 99 based on how often they perform a certain action. It also tells us how effective they are compared to others in their position.

However, he has performed well when he takes opponents with the ball at his feet and also factors into the rims’ front-line press. While we want to see an all-rounder at the top, the number of true goal forwards is decreasing with each passing year.

Balogun seems to project well into a more modern archetype – even when factoring in the difference in quality between Ligue 1 and the Premier League, smarterscout’s data reflects. His pizza chart.

International future

Representing England and America in the youth category and holding Nigerian qualifications, Balogun said Website of Ligue 1 He will soon decide who will represent him in November. While recent years have seen high-pressure decisions by others such as Sergino Dest, Yunus Musah, Gaga Slonina and Malik Tillman, Balogun is not immune to the speculation.

“I don’t have a problem with that,” Balgun said. “It is the role of the media to ask such questions and I accept it. I will make a decision soon and that decision will not depend on what the media or people think but what is best for me. We will talk about it quietly with my family. “

He spoke well of his American experience in the same interview.

“Yes, when I was 17, the US federation offered me a friendly tournament in the Czech Republic in the summer,” Balogun said. “I played for England in the Euro U-17s a few months ago, but after talking to the family I decided to go. And we won the competition! It was a good experience because I saw how to play and other ways. I’m still in touch with many of the people I met there. “

While his family ponders his options in private, the rest of us in the public sector bear the burden of analyzing his options. England’s strikers remain stable ahead of the 2026 World Cup, with Harry Kane turning 32 and Marcus Rashford just 28. As Aston there is no obvious next-in-line among the young options beyond Balgun (who is currently 21). Villa’s Cameron Archer, Leeds’ Joe Gelhardt and Tottenham’s Dan Scarlett have yet to establish themselves at club level.

Nigeria have the deepest pool of the three nations, with Napoli’s Victor Osimhen leading a group that includes Ademola Lookman, Samuel Chukwueze, Kelechi Iheanacho and Terem Mofie, who scored 10 goals in the ongoing Ligue 1 season with Lorient.

But no position has been weaker for America over the past five years than striker. Throughout the Gregg Berhalter era, teams have opted to play their strikers in more withdrawn roles, asking them to play in build-up phases and create opportunities for their wingers as well as them.

While Jesus Ferreira was the top option in the summer in a deep-lying role, he struggled in his only World Cup appearance, a start against the Netherlands in the Round of 16. Josh Sargent looked very good along with Christian Pulisic and Tim Weah but fell short. Factor in the chance to score an own goal before missing the knockout loss due to injury. Haji Wright came in as a goal substitute and net scorer, but struggled to make an impact in the tournament after a good debut against Wales.

All three represented different approaches to the situation; All three struggled. In Balogun, the program will find its white whale: someone who can be a good goal striker and an upgrade on the current options.

Balgun vs USA 2022 World Cup Strikers, 2022-23*

Data via Wyscout
* All data for 2022-23 league action save for Ferreira, which uses the full 2022 MLS season.

Not only has Balgun fired over 90 shots per game, but he’s done so at a respectable level putting shots on frame. His non-penalty xG of 0.52 would also be tops in this class, to say nothing of factoring in his 0.64 clip of three converted penalty kicks.

The rest of the data helps show how he has played for Reims even if you don’t watch Ligue 1. Forward passing stats help illustrate the difference between Ferreira — a deep-lying forward if ever there was one — and Wright, more so. A classic line-leading goal forward. On that spectrum, Balogan almost resembles Sargent, bolstered by the number of dribbles he attempts. Unlike the Norwich forward, however, Balogun hasn’t shown much ability in the air while factoring less into frontline defending.

However, on numbers alone Balogun represents a better goalscoring threat than the current stable of American male strikers without sacrificing many of the factors that make Sergeant (and, on merit, Ricardo Pepi) ideal options between Pulisic, Weah and the rest. Wing options.

While January may not see Balogun change clubs, his loan spell in France has really taken his game to the next level. Whether he joins Musah and Tillman in leading the U.S. to the 2026 World Cup or becomes one of the program’s great near misses like Neven Subotic or Giuseppe Rossi remains to be seen.

However he leans in, it’s clear he’s finally got his senior career on track – whether he’s in the plans for Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal or not.

(Photo: Gareth Copley/Getty Images)