KATHMANDU, March 20: Our Russia editor Steve Rosenberg and China correspondent Stephen McDonell have been considering what each side seeks to gain from the talks and what we know about the relationship between the two countries.
Putin seeks help from a friend
Imagine that you are Vladimir Putin.
You have started a war that has not gone as planned; you are up to your neck in sanctions; and now the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for war crimes bearing his name.
It’s times like these that you need a friend.
Enter Xi Jinping.
President Xi once called President Putin his “best friend.” The two have much in common: both are authoritarian leaders, and both embrace the idea of a “multipolar world” devoid of US domination.
In Moscow they are expected to sign an agreement to “deepen the comprehensive association” between their two countries.
The Chinese president’s state visit is a clear sign of support for Russia – and its president – at a time when the Kremlin is under intense international pressure.
And Russia’s relationship with China is critical to resisting that.
“Putin is building his own bloc. He no longer trusts the West, and never will again,” believes journalist Dmitry Muratov, a former Nobel Peace Prize laureate.
“So Putin is looking for allies and trying to make Russia part of a common fortress with China, as well as India, some parts of Latin America and Africa. Putin is building his anti-Western world.”
In this “anti-Western world”, Moscow is heavily dependent on Beijing now more than ever as the war continues in Ukraine.
“War has become the organizing principle of Russia’s domestic policy, foreign policy and economic policy. There is an obsession with destroying Ukraine,” concludes Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“For that you need weapons, money and an economic lifeline. China provides Russia at least with components for weapons and civilian technology that can be used for military purposes. It definitely provides money.”
To counter Western sanctions and prop up the Russian economy, Russia has been boosting trade with China, mainly in the energy sector. Expect oil, gas and energy pipelines to be on the agenda of the Putin-Xi talks.
But once again, imagine that you are Putin. A year ago, you and Xi proclaimed that your partnership has “no limits.” If that is indeed the case, could you expect China to now assist you in the Ukraine, providing Russia with lethal aid and facilitating a military victory for Moscow? The United States claims that China is considering doing just that. Beijing denies it.
As they say in Russia, “there’s nothing wrong with wishing for something”, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. If the past year has shown anything, it’s that “unlimited association” does have limits. Up to this point, Beijing has apparently been reluctant to provide direct military assistance to Moscow, for fear of triggering secondary sanctions in the West against Chinese companies. In regards to Beijing: sorry, Russia…it’s China first.
That very point was made very bluntly recently on a talk show on Russian state television.
“Before President Xi’s visit to Moscow, some experts here were over-excited, even euphoric,” said military expert Mikhail Khodarenok.
“But China can only have one ally: China itself. China can only have one set of interests: pro-Chinese. Chinese foreign policy is completely devoid of altruism.”
Signals from Xi to Putin can only go in three directions
Officially, Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia is to promote bilateral ties between two neighbors, and indeed these governments say they are growing closer.
There are agreements to sign, meals to eat, photo opportunities to organize.
All governments have these kinds of tours, so why all the attention on this one?
Well, for one thing, this is the leader of one of the two great superpowers in the world visiting an ally, who happens to be the person who has unleashed a bloody invasion of another country in Europe, in 2023.
Many analysts have wondered what China might do if it appears that Russia is facing a clear and humiliating defeat on the battlefield.
The Chinese government says it is neutral. Would he just step back and let that happen, or would he start injecting weapons to give the Russian military a better advantage?
After Xi arrives in Moscow, he and his Russian counterpart can talk about other things, but all attention will be on the Ukraine crisis.
His signals to Vladimir Putin can only go in three directions:
1. It’s time to consider retiring with some commitment to save face
2. Green light to go ahead or even go in harder
3. Nothing both ways from China’s leader
China comes from negotiating an agreement in which Iran and Saudi Arabia have restored diplomatic relations. It is becoming increasingly ready to inject itself into matters far beyond its borders. This would seem to make option three unlikely.
With option one, if it comes down to Beijing being able to reclaim the mantle of world peacemaker after the Iran-Saudi deal, it would be to Xi’s great advantage.
The main problem with that option is the extent to which it would also benefit China.
The bleakest option is number two, but there is a reading that Russia’s war with Ukraine influences Beijing’s geopolitical strategy. The Kremlin is taking on the West, consuming NATO resources, and the longer the war goes on, the more it tests the Western public’s appetite for more conflict if the People’s Liberation Army moves to take Taiwan by force.
Beijing’s calculation could be that the longer the war lasts, the fewer people will want to get involved in another.
The Chinese government’s claim of neutrality also does not match the state-controlled news reports here. Evening TV bulletins follow the Kremlin line and spend much of their coverage blaming the “West” for the “conflict.” He does not speak of a “war” and would never dream of referring to an “invasion” of the Ukraine.
Publicly, China says that the sovereignty of all nations (ie Ukraine’s), but also the “legitimate security concerns” of other countries (ie Russia) must be respected.
However, Xi Jinping is not visiting kyiv. it is Moscow.
So when Xi leaves Moscow in a few days, Putin will either be concerned by faltering Chinese support or buoyed by endorsement from one of the two most powerful people on the planet.
The smart money seems to be in the latter.
