Is Enzo Fernandez really worth £105million after only 80 senior matches?

Breakthrough seasons don’t get more dizzying than the ride Enzo Fernandez has been on since signing for Benfica from River Plate in a deal worth €14million (£12.3m) in July.

Within the space of six months, the 21-year-old went his first 22 matches unbeaten with his new club, announcing himself on the European stage by shining in midfield as Benfica topped a Champions League group featuring Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus, then broke into Argentina’s starting XI during the World Cup and immediately established himself as an indispensable contributor to a historic triumph in Qatar.

Having deservedly walked away with the FIFA Young Player of the Tournament award, Fernandez is now second only to the Borussia Dortmund sensation Jude Bellingham in the ranks of the most-coveted young midfielders in the world. Chelsea have been particularly proactive in the early days of January as they search for a high-level successor to Jorginho, who is set to become a free agent in the summer.

Benfica, who are under no obligation or financial duress to sell, have made it clear they will not part with Fernandez for any less than the value of his €120million (£105million) release clause. Even by the standards of aggressive spending that Todd Boehly and Clearlake Capital have set since their acquisition of Chelsea last May, it would be a jaw-dropping outlay on a player with only 80 professional appearances for club and country to his name.

So the key question is: just how special is Fernandez? Is he really worth that kind of transfer fee?

---

Any data-led analysis of Fernandez quickly runs into the issue of small sample size; he simply hasn’t played enough high-level football for clubs to comprehensively model his strengths and weaknesses and confidently predict the player he can become. With that important disclaimer noted, the advanced numbers from his 14 Primeira Liga appearances for Benfica indicate a talent that merits the close attention of Europe’s elite teams.

Using Smarterscout, which can create a statistical profile of a footballer using ratings from zero to 99 to show how often they perform a specific action compared to others playing in their position or how effective they are at it, we can see that Fernandez projects as an exceptional progressive midfield playmaker who has the ability to impact matches defensively.

Many of those attributes were on display in the World Cup final against France — by far the biggest match of Fernandez’s career. For more than an hour, he provided the passing foundation and defensive balance for Argentina’s total control against the defending champions. Then, once momentum shifted and Kylian Mbappe led a remarkable fightback, he played an integral role in weathering the storm and powering a thrilling extra-time push.

Fernandez was helped by the fact France under Didier Deschamps do not often hunt the ball high up, but he also gave them little encouragement whenever they did try to press. Here, with six French players near him in the Argentina half, Fernandez recognises that Angel Di Maria will immediately be pressured by Mbappe and Adrien Rabiot if he receives the obvious pass — so, instead, he skips him out, clipping the ball into the space ahead of Nahuel Molina…

When given more space to receive the ball in midfield, Fernandez showcased the ability to quickly turn defence into attack. Here, a sharp pass from Cristian Romero finds him free behind Antoine Griezmann…

… and with minimal touches to control and pivot, he swiftly looks up and floats a precise ball out towards an unmarked Nicolas Tagliafico on the left touchline…

Later in the game, with a resurgent France now level, he advances over the halfway line with the ball at his feet and uses the presence of two team-mates to his left to disguise a pass through the opposition midfield to Julian Alvarez. The aim here — as it was with virtually every Argentina attack at the World Cup — is to get Lionel Messi involved as quickly as possible…

On this occasion, Messi is stifled and France counter quickly but, 10 seconds later, Fernandez has worked back effectively enough to help pressure Marcus Thuram into the least immediately dangerous option — a pass out to Mbappe on the left flank…

Fernandez never neglected his defensive responsibilities at the base of Argentina’s midfield, and his contributions without the ball became more important as fatigue grew for both teams. His reading of danger was evidenced early in the first half.

Here, Ousmane Dembele lays the ball back and Fernandez anticipates that the next pass is heading towards Griezmann…

… and he closes the distance quickly to make a perfectly-timed tackle…

In the opening minutes of the second half, as Nicolas Otamendi’s loose touch pops up into the air, Fernandez is already on the move towards Mbappe, who is well positioned to capitalise if the French substitute Randal Kolo Muani wins his header…

Kolo Muani does just that, but almost as soon as Mbappe brings the ball under control, Fernandez gets in front of him, eventually conceding a corner kick…

In the manic exchanges that followed in extra time, Fernandez is dispossessed inside his own half, under pressure from Thuram and Kolo Muani…

Kolo Muani races away to the edge of the Argentina penalty area but, before he can threaten the goal, the recovering Fernandez hooks a leg to take the ball away…

Then there was Fernandez’s most-important defensive contribution of the match: popping up in his own box in the final seconds to brilliantly poke the ball away from Mbappe who, having already scored a hat-trick, has beaten two Argentina defenders and is shaping up to score the winner…

Argentina’s triumph will be remembered primarily as the definitive affirmation of Messi’s greatness, but it isn’t an exaggeration to suggest that Fernandez’s introduction from the bench against Mexico in the group stage — and the subsequent re-balancing of Lionel Scaloni’s midfield around him — changed the trajectory of their World Cup, providing the platform to deliver the ball to the game’s greatest player in positions where he could be at his most decisive.

Perhaps it should have been more obvious to Scaloni from the outset that Fernandez was ready to play this role, given his performances for Benfica in the Primeira Liga — they top the table by five points ahead of Porto — and an impressive Champions League group stage in the first half of the season.

Benfica emerged unbeaten from Group H, edging out PSG for top spot after two 1-1 draws with the French champions and beating a jaded Juventus team home and away. Fernandez started all four of those matches, operating in a double midfield pivot alongside Florentino Luis, providing a blend of control and creativity in possession and defensive diligence out of it.

These meetings with Juventus and PSG also offered useful indicators of how Fernandez might cope with more intense, sustained midfield pressure; contrasting the slower pace of international football. Here, in the home match against Juventus, he receives a pass from the right touchline with two opponents ready to pounce on a poor touch…

Fernandez instead uses his first touch to chop the ball away from the advancing opponent, before sending a quick pass left with the outside of his right foot, enabling Benfica to advance the ball into space and send their opposition into retreat…

Mixed in with Fernandez’s shorter, more subtle passes are incisive longer ones. His accurate switches of play from left to right have become a feature of Benfica’s possession this season and, perhaps aware of that threat in the same game against Juventus, he instead floats a pass over the right of the opposing full-back into the path of a runner…

Fernandez’s most eye-catching performance of all might have been in the 1-1 draw with PSG at Parc des Princes in October. Benfica had just 38 per cent of possession and were required to defend for long periods and make the most of their limited time on the ball. Their star midfielder was crucial to them achieving both.

Here, 10 minutes in, Fernandez reads that Sergio Ramos is about to win the ball — and that the lightning-fast Achraf Hakimi has space to attack…

Fernandez shuffles quickly to cut off the wing-back’s run, standing up his opponent and ultimately winning the ball cleanly when Hakimi tries to knock it past him…

On the ball, Fernandez completed 90 per cent of his passes, and they were not all the safe option of going sideways or backwards. Here, he spots and executes a first-time pass with the outside of his right foot through a narrow gap between two PSG players, taking four opponents out of the game and giving Benfica the platform to attack…

In the second half, Fernandez is on the ball facing away from the goal and appears as if he is about to pass back to one of his defenders — something the PSG attackers are certainly expecting…

But, having sold them the backwards pass, Fernandez quickly steps over the ball, spins and rattles a sharp pass between two more PSG players into the feet of his more advanced team-mate situated between the lines…

Fernandez also demonstrates good instincts in finding advantageous situations for his team. Receiving a pass from the left touchline against Juventus in Turin, the standard play for a lot of midfielders here would be to open up the body and play to the right, either with a short pass or a longer switch of play…

But, before the ball comes to him, Fernandez anticipates an onrushing opponent is giving his team a potential two vs one on the left. So he simply steps onto the ball, rolls it under his right foot and quickly sends it back where it came from…

Fernandez looks like an elite midfield playmaker in the making, and a comparison with positional peers outside Europe’s top five leagues over the past 365 days on fbref.com places him in the 90th percentile or above for assists (0.2), expected assisted goals (0.22), shot-creating actions (4.67), passes attempted (97.4) and progressive passes (9.4) per 90 minutes, as well as the 77th percentile for tackles (2.5) per 90 minutes.

These stats, on top of impactful performances against high-level Champions League opposition and a key role in the emotional cauldron of a World Cup final, show why Chelsea and other elite clubs are casting admiring glances in Fernandez’s direction.

---

But the key question remains: how much is Fernandez actually worth?

The best answer, though hardly satisfying, is that the market will determine his value. Right now, Benfica are in a strong position to insist on no less than the full amount of his release clause — though Fernandez appears to be doing all he can to weaken their stance. It will take a high level of urgency (or desperation, depending on your perspective) to prise him away.

Look down the list of football’s most-expensive transfers and the fees tend to tell you more about the buying clubs than about the quality of the players involved…

It also reads like a litany of disappointment. This is in part because the finances involved often set the bar for success almost impossibly high. In a sport consisting of 11-man teams, how many individual players are impactful enough to be worth in excess of £100million?

If paid, Benfica’s asking price would make Fernandez the most-expensive Premier League player ever. His rapid rise to international prominence means there is nowhere near enough data to be anything close to certain — but there is a real chance he could be one of the finest midfielders of his generation, capable of influencing every aspect of top-level matches for the next decade or longer.

Yet, the problem will be that if Chelsea agree to pay €120million for Fernandez, they can’t afford for him to be anything less.

(Photo: Julian Finney/Getty Images)